Don't be surprised if Oklahoma's Joe Mixon is drafted by end of third round

INDIANAPOLIS — The more that NFL teams tackle the Joe Mixon question, the more there’s a sense within the league that the dynamic but divisive Oklahoma running back won’t last beyond the second day of next month’s draft.

Now, there’s a difference between believing someone will take Mixon in the second or third round and actually putting his name on the card, knowing the gruesome video of him breaking a woman’s jaw and cheekbone with a punch 2½ years ago will play on a seemingly endless loop on local TV and trigger backlash from fans, media and sponsors.

After speaking with general managers and scouts the past week at the NFL combine, from which Mixon was barred, it’s clear he’s already off some draft boards and in limbo on others. But plenty of people want to learn more, starting at Oklahoma’s pro day workout Wednesday, before making any firm decisions.

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This is a three-down back whom some scouts have rated as a top-15 or top-20 type of talent. Somebody is going to get him at a discount. If you decide you can stomach all that comes with drafting Mixon, the next consideration is whether the round you take him in would really have that much effect on the inevitable outcry that follows.

In other words, the people who’d pillory an owner and general manager for taking Mixon in the second round probably wouldn’t give a free pass if he’s taken in the fourth or fifth instead. Right or wrong, even after Ray Rice and Greg Hardy and Josh Brown, you can bet Mixon will be playing in the NFL next season. If you want him, how long can you afford to wait?

Horrible as the video is — and it is really, really hard to watch — the word out of OU on Mixon is positive overall. He was the heartbeat of the Sooners’ team. Scouts have done extensive background work, not only speaking to people in the football program, but women who work in athletic training, academic support, etc.

A confrontation with a parking lot attendant that got Mixon suspended for one game last year makes some wonder about anger management and whether he fully grasps the microscope he’ll be under. Some teams will try to rile him up in interviews and see what happens. But put it this way: there are other top draft prospects that NFL teams are way more concerned with than Mixon from a character standpoint. Their transgressions just haven’t been caught on tape.

That’s a key distinction, of course. It’s why the Kansas City Chiefs got a fraction of the negative attention for drafting Tyreek Hill last year than Mixon’s new team is bound to receive. Hill reached a plea deal in 2015 for hitting and choking his pregnant former girlfriend. The Chiefs took him in the fifth round and got an instant star who scored 12 touchdowns as a rookie.

Some teams can’t afford to touch Mixon based on past history (e.g. the Giants with Brown, the Ravens with Rice, etc.). Others will decide he’s just not worth the headache, especially with other options in a class one scout said includes over 40 running backs with draftable grades. Some teams may be inclined to only consider Mixon on Day 3, believing the sooner they take him, the more it’ll seem they’re condoning a reprehensible act.

Not many backs can do the things Mixon can, though. He averaged more than 150 yards per game from scrimmage last season. He’ll aim to remind teams of that Wednesday, when he’s expected to perform in all drills. He surely has a lot of visits to team facilities ahead of him, too.

Some owner and GM who possess a lot of political capital, badly need some value talent and/or just don’t care what anyone thinks will take Mixon, explain why they believe in him and weather the storm until it subsides — which it almost always does, especially if the player performs well.

How early in the draft will it happen? It’s sure starting to sound like it may be sooner than many expected.

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Follow Tom Pelissero on Twitter @TomPelissero

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