SPORTS

Atlantic 10 Conference college basketball season preview for 2016-17

USA TODAY Sports
Jordan Burgess (20), JeQuan Lewis (1) and Mo Alie-Cox (12) all figure to play a part in VCU's success this season.

USA TODAY Sports projects the order of finish in the A-10 Conference and analyzes each team.

1. Virginia Commonwealth Rams

► What to watch: VCU barely skipped a beat under first-year coach Will Wade. The Rams continued to disrupt opposing offenses, forcing 15 turnovers a game while increasing their adjusted offensive efficiency. Mo Alie-Cox (10.4 ppg) took advantage of increased playing time to establish himself as a threat in the post. How will Wade replace the void created by the graduation of leading scorer Melvin Johnson (17.4 ppg)?

► Bottom line: After an early adjustment period, JeQuan Lewis proved his playmaking abilities (5.1 apg) at point guard last season. If the senior can continue that rise, Wade and the Rams should pick up where they left off. Junior forward Justin Tillman (7.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who topped double figures in nine regular-season conference games, will step into a larger role. Doug Brooks (4.2 ppg) and Jordan Burgess (4.9 ppg) give the Rams experience at guard. Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed (5.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg) adds another option in the post.

USA TODAY Sports' preseason college basketball bracketology for 2016-17

2. Dayton Flyers

► What to watch: With 78 wins over their first three seasons, seniors Kyle Davis (8 ppg, 3.5 rpg), Kendall Pollard (10.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Scoochie Smith (11.7 ppg, 4.3 apg) could become the winningest class in program history. Redshirt senior Charles Cooke (15.6 ppg) led the Flyers in scoring last season. Can redshirt sophomore transfer Josh Cunningham have a similar impact?

► Bottom line: The offseason death of freshman center Steve McElvene (6.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg) sent shock waves through the program. But the Flyers have shown they are at their best when facing adversity. Junior guard Darrell Davis (5.8 ppg) has the potential for a breakout season. Freshman Kostas Antetokounmpo (6-10, 190) helped Dominican High (Milwaukee) to its fifth consecutive Wisconsin 4A title.

3. Rhode Island Rams

► What to watch: Injuries short-circuited what was to be a promising season for the Rams a year ago. A healthy E.C. Matthews (16.9 ppg as a sophomore in 2014-15) and Hassan Martin (12 ppg, 5.6 rpg) combined with an experienced group of returners make Rhode Island a favorite to end its 18-year NCAA tournament drought. Fifth-year coach Danny Hurley is committed to the stingy defense from two seasons ago, when the Rams held opponents to 60.2 points per game.

► Bottom line: Matthews is a next-level talent who can take over a game. Martin plays with impressive efficiency (his 59.8% field goal shooting as a sophomore ranked among the nation’s best). How quickly can Hurley get this team to mesh as Jarvis Garrett (12.5 ppg) and Kuran Iverson (9.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg) will have to accept different roles?

Analysis: Breaking down the preseason coaches poll top 25 teams

4. St. Bonaventure Bonnies

► What to watch: St. Bonaventure will need to replace the offensive production of Marcus Posley (19.6 ppg) and Dion Wright (16.7 ppg). Tenth-year coach Mark Schmidt is at his best developing players. Led by Jaylen Adams (17.9 ppg, 5 apg), the Bonnies return four players who averaged double-digit minutes a year ago. Junior college transfer Courtney Stockard sat out last season with an injury. The 6-5, 195-pound guard-forward should figure prominently in the attack.

► Bottom line: Adams (43.8% from three-point range) is an elite point guard capable of creating shots for himself and teammates. Denzel Gregg (9.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg) was the Atlantic 10 sixth man of the year and can step into a larger role, as can Idris Taqqee (5.1 ppg, 4 rpg), the team’s defensive stopper a year ago. The Bonnies have the makings of another team ready to compete for the conference title.

Jack Gibbs was Davidson's leading scorer last season.

5. Davidson Wildcats

► What to watch: Veteran coach Bob McKillop returns his top two scorers in Jack Gibbs (23.5 ppg) and Peyton Aldridge (15.5 ppg) from a team that slipped to sixth last season. Junior forward Nathan Ekwu (5.7 ppg) topped double figures in five conference games and shows the potential for more. Jordan Watkins (37.8% from three-point range) is streaky but can step up when the situation warrants.

► Bottom line: Gibbs eclipsed the 40-point plateau in three games last season. The senior guard led Davidson with 4.9 assists a game. He and Aldridge combined to hit 131 three-pointers. Davidson will compete with the top teams in the Atlantic 10.

6. George Washington Colonials

► What to watch: The defending National Invitation Tournament champions return leading scorer Tyler Cavanaugh (16.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg) and Yuta Watanabe (8.4 ppg), but the graduation of Joe McDonald and transfer of Paul Jorgenson leave a hole at point guard. Seton Hall transfer Jaren Sina will add experience to the backcourt, as will graduate transfer Patrick Steeves (Harvard).

► Bottom line: Cavanaugh carried the bulk of the scoring load, finishing in double figures in all 38 games. Sina will shoulder some of that load. The 6-2, 193-pound guard played in 24 games as a sophomore for Seton Hall, averaging 7 points and 2.3 assists. Steeves averaged 9.1 points and shot 45.2% from three-point range. How will the Colonials respond to the untimely dismissal of coach Mike Lonergan?

7. Saint Joseph’s Hawks

► What to watch: Few predicted Saint Joseph’s would take the league championship after it won seven league games in 2014-15. Then Isaiah Miles (18.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg) had a breakout season and gave the Hawks an option to complement DeAndre Bembry (17.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 4.5 apg). With those two moving on, Phil Martelli’s squad will have a different look.

► Bottom line: Shavar Newkirk (8 ppg, 2.6 apg) and all-rookie performer Lamarr Kimble (6 ppg, 2.5 apg) give Saint Joseph’s dynamic playmakers at point guard. Junior forward James Demery (8.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg) will need to carry a bulk of the scoring load for the Hawks. Freshman Charles Brown Jr. can score from the outside and off the dribble. Without Bembry’s presence, Martelli’s Hawks will struggle to string together victories.

8. Richmond Spiders

► What to watch: T.J. Cline (18.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.8 apg) established himself as an elite performer last season. Marshall Wood shot 40.3% from behind the arc. All-rookie performer Khwan Fore (6.5 ppg) can provide an increase in offensive production.

► Bottom line: Five of Richmond’s conference losses came by 18 total points. The Spiders, known in the past for stingy matchup zone defense, allowed 73.8 points a game a season ago. The struggles left coach Chris Mooney reconsidering his approach. Can the Spiders recapture their defensive identity?

Saint Mary’s, Northern Iowa aim to leapfrog Gonzaga, Wichita State

9. Fordham Rams

► What to watch: In his first season at the helm, Jeff Neubauer guided Fordham to a 17-14 mark, including eight conference wins — both program highs over the past eight seasons. Led by conference rookie of the year Joseph Chartouny, Fordham used pressure defense to push tempo, scoring more than 71 points a game. The Rams will need to replace the production of graduate Ryan Rhoomes (14.6 ppg, 9.7 rpg).

► Bottom line: Chartouny set a school assists record (161) last season. Christian Sengfelder (10.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Antwoine Anderson (8.3 ppg, 2.6 apg) will step into larger roles. Can David Pekarek (6-7, 210), who started the last 13 games of 2015-16, give Fordham production in the post? At their best, the Rams create turnovers. Will that scheme survive over the long haul in a guard-heavy conference?

10. Massachusetts Minutemen

► What to watch: Coach Derek Kellogg will preach patience this season. The ninth-year coach landed his most heralded recruiting class, and his six freshmen will get plenty of opportunities, but growing pains are to be expected this season. Donte Clark (16.1 ppg) is the lone returning scorer in double figures.

► Bottom line: Under Kellogg, the Minutemen have played up-tempo and emphasized pressure defense. An athletic incoming class fits the mold. They might pull an upset or two, but they are a season away from challenging the top of the league.

MORE: A-10 freshman names to know

11. La Salle Explorers

► What to watch: After tumbling to last place, John Giannini’s Explorers will have a different look this season with the addition of transfers Demetrius Henry (South Carolina), B.J. Johnson (Syracuse) and Pookie Powell (Memphis). The Explorers return their top four scorers in Jordan Price (19.2 ppg), Cleon Roberts (12.9), Johnnie Shuler (9.6) and Tony Washington (7.7).

► Bottom line: Giannini took full blame for a season in which the Explorers became predictable on offense with Price averaging more than 16 shots a game. La Salle will improve upon its four conference wins, but a middle-of-the-pack finish is the ceiling.

Top 10 mid-major teams heading into 2016-17

12. George Mason Patriots

► What to watch: Dave Paulsen’s first season with George Mason included early-season victories against Mississippi and Oklahoma State in the Charleston Classic and later included an upset of conference heavyweight Virginia Commonwealth. In between, the Patriots stumbled to a 1-7 start in Atlantic 10 play. Led by all-rookie performer Otis Livingston II (11.9 ppg), Paulsen returns six players who averaged double-digit minutes from that team.

► Bottom line: A healthy Marquise Moore (11.4 ppg) will help George Mason find much-needed consistency on the offensive end. The Patriots will need to improve on a league-low 29.1% three-point shooting as well as replace the inside production of graduate Shevon Thompson (9.9 ppg, 10.6 rpg). Jaire Grayer (9.5 ppg) and Jalen Jenkins (7.1 ppg) will contribute to a balanced lineup.

Former Oklahoma State coach Travis Ford is in his first year at Saint Louis.

13. Saint Louis Billikens 

► What to watch: First-year coach Travis Ford has his work cut out. Last year, Saint Louis managed two wins against Atlantic 10 teams with winning records in the conference. Ford has the pieces in place with all-rookie performer Jermaine Bishop (8.9 ppg, 2.3 apg), senior Mike Crawford (10.3 ppg) and Reggie Agbeko (6.2 rpg). Davell Roby (6.3 ppg) has flashes of brilliance.

► Bottom line: Ford wasted little time landing an impressive recruiting class, including transfers Javon Bess (Michigan State), D.J. Foreman (Rutgers) and Adonys Henriquez (Central Florida), plus talented freshmen Jalen Johnson and Zeke Moore.

14. Duquesne Dukes

► What to watch: Jim Ferry’s Dukes led the Atlantic 10 in scoring, averaging 79.5 points a game. But the graduations of Micah Mason (18.4 ppg) and Derrick Colter (17.9 ppg) and the transfer of L.G. Gill (10.1 pgg) removes 58% of the production. The Dukes endured a 24-hour bus trip when they got stuck on the Pennsylvania turnpike during a snowstorm and started the A-10 schedule 5-4.

► Bottom line: Transfers Emile Blackman (Niagara) and Kale Abrahamson (Drake) bring backcourt production, but it is hard to see Duquesne improving upon the six conference wins it has posted in each of the last two seasons.

Don’t-miss games

  • Virginia Commonwealth vs. Baylor (Nov. 23): VCU takes on Baylor at the Battle 4 Atlantis in an early-season meeting of two NCAA tournament regulars.
  • Rhode Island at Providence (Dec. 3): Their last three games have been decided by single digits, including a two-point win for the Friars a season ago. With E.C. Matthews back, URI could snap Providence’s streak in this series.
  • St. Bonaventure at Dayton (Feb. 18): Jaylen Adams scored 31, including a go-ahead three-pointer in the final minute of play, as St. Bonaventure knocked off then-nationally ranked Dayton on the road.
  • Virginia Commonwealth at Dayton (March 1): Dayton rallied to force overtime and claimed a one-point road win and tie for first. Expect similar implications when these favorites meet.

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Breakdowns by Paul Gotham of pickinsplinters.com.

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