Analysis: North Korea, U.S. curb military threats but diplomatic progress remains elusive

WASHINGTON — North Korea and the Trump administration have stepped back from the belligerent threats of the past week, raising hopes that diplomacy might replace brinksmanship.

Even so, progress on that front anytime soon is unlikely, foreign policy experts caution.

“For the time being, we're at a standoff with the North Koreans,” said Robert Einhorn, a former State Department special adviser on arms control and nonproliferation.

North Korea said its leader, Kim Jong Un, postponed a plan to shoot missiles near the U.S. territory of Guam in the western Pacific, saying he would watch “stupid American behavior” before making a decision.

Kim Jong Un's retreat from imminent military confrontation followed remarks by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and other administration officials saying that their focus is on diplomacy to address North Korea's nuclear program — although the U.S. military is prepared to respond to any provocation.

President Trump has helped lower tensions by refraining from any incendiary threats against North Korea in recent days.

There appears to be little progress on the diplomatic front, however. The two sides remain too far apart now to start serious talks, which Trump previously said he would consider. Kim doesn’t want to relinquish his nuclear weapons, which he views as essential to deter a U.S. attack, and Trump’s position is similar to previous U.S. administrations: North Korea must give up its nukes.

“The leaders have diametrically opposed views,” said Patrick Cronin, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security.

Still, back channel contacts between the U.S. and North Korean governments are continuing. Such informal discussions helped win the release in June of American captive Otto Warmbier, the college student accused of trying to steal a propaganda poster. He was sent back to the United States in an unconscious state and died shortly after his return. 

Three other Americans are still being held by North Korea.

The back-channel communications are between Joseph Yun, the U.S. envoy for North Korean policy, and Pak Song Il, a member of the North Korean delegation to the United Nations. The talks have expanded beyond Americans held by North Korea, the Associated Press reported.

Discussions have also been held unofficially between other Americans and North Koreans.

“The positions of the two sides, at least at this stage, don’t overlap at all,” said Einhorn, who is now at the Brookings Institution.  “It looks as if pressure will be the name of the game for quite some time.”

That makes it unlikely that either side would make a dramatic gesture, such as North Korea releasing an imprisoned American or the United States cancelling planned military exercises next week with U.S. and South Korean forces.

The military exercises are held annually, but North Korea has consistently viewed such joint maneuvers nearby as provocative.

The United States is using the back-channel communications to gauge North Korea’s political will before launching formal talks, Cronin and other analysts said. The objective is to determine quietly if the North Koreans would be willing to negotiate over their nuclear weapons.

For now both sides are sticking to their talking points. “It’s political will that’s missing,” Cronin said.

That's been a familiar pattern with U.S.-North Korean relations, in which the few diplomatic breakthroughs have not lasted. Deals reached by Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush to curb North Korea's nuclear weapons program ended after the North reneged on the terms. 

What’s different now is Trump’s unusually bellicose rhetoric, which has heightened fears of war but may have prompted Kim to back away from firing missiles toward Guam.

“President Trump is not that different than an Asian leader in not wanting to lose face” by making idle threats, Cronin said. “Because Trump is so unpredictable it makes (Kim) more cautious ...Kim is afraid of starting a war and that is good.”

At the same time, "nobody wants to make concessions to another side that's not interested," Cronin said. "I think there will have to be some sort of summit between Trump and Kim Jong Un."

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