Takeaways from Tuesday's Senate vote: Obamacare repeal roller coaster lurches out of the station

Score one big win for Mitch McConnell: The Senate majority leader got most of his GOP colleagues to vote in favor of beginning debate to overturn the Affordable Care Act, in a vote that was laced with more drama than any "motion to proceed" vote in memory.

But it was also an indication of just how hard it is going to be to actually pass an Obamacare replacement. 

Her are a few key takeaways from Tuesday's vote:

Long way to go

The vote Tuesday was only the very first step, like the roller coaster car lurching out of the loading dock ("You must be at least THIS sick to ride this health care bill"). The Senate now begins an incomprehensible series of votes and amendments, many of which will mean little in the end.

Best guess is that by the end of the week, McConnell returns with another high-tension vote on a bill that repeals key parts of Obamacare but leaves a lot of it in place, and probably has no full-fledged replacement.

There is no telling whether he can get 50 votes in support of this, and if he does, there is no telling whether the House can pass it. That means we could be at this for a while.

Lowest bar ever

The vote Tuesday was a motion to proceed to debate a health care bill that basically does not yet exist. It needed only 51 votes to pass and it got only 51 votes — with Vice President Pence casting the deciding vote.

For about 20 minutes Tuesday afternoon, McConnell's Republicans were stuck at 48 "aye" votes, and every political junkie in America held their breath and waited for Sens. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and John McCain of Arizona to cast their votes.

McCain finally arrived and voted "aye" and Johnson did, too, and victory was declared: The Republicans have agreed to begin the process of replacing the bill they had drafted to replace the bill the House drafted to replace Obamacare. Seems like a pretty low bar.

For those of us who love the Senate

McCain arrived late, brandishing a scar over his left eye from his recent surgery and cancer diagnosis, and voted in favor of moving forward, then took the microphone and said, basically, that he hopes the bill dies. McCain pleaded for a return to some kind of "regular order" — hearings, negotiations with Democrats, votes on amendments and similar anachronistic niceties.

"We’ve tried to do this by coming up with a proposal behind closed doors in consultation with the administration, then springing it on skeptical members, trying to convince them it’s better than nothing, asking us to swallow our doubts and force it past a unified opposition," McCain said. "I don’t think that is going to work in the end. And it probably shouldn’t."

Trump wants a bill — any bill

President Trump, speaking in the Rose Garden with the prime minister of Lebanon, said he was "extremely happy" with the vote. But he was, as usual, extremely vague about what he thinks should be in an Obamacare repeal/replace bill.

"Now we’re all going to sit together and we’re going to try and come up with something that’s really spectacular," Trump said. "We have a lot of options, and a lot of great options ... I believe now we will over the next week or two come up with a plan that’s going to be really, really wonderful for the American people."

Two votes

Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine just took the toughest votes they will ever have to take: voting against their party leader and their president on a motion to even debate legislation that would advance a fundamental promise the Republican Party has been making to voters for seven years.

Having taken that vote with nothing of substance in the bill, it will only get easier for them to oppose legislation once it has real words in it. It will be very, very hard for McConnell to win them back, meaning if he loses one more senator, the repeal bill is dead. 

That means we will be back here in a few days, again staring at C-SPAN, watching the vote count tick up past 40 "ayes" and wondering ... whether there is ... one... more... vote.

Read more:

The Senate agreed to debate a health care bill. Now what?

Senate Republicans clear key hurdle on Obamacare repeal, but the hard part is still ahead

John Boehner: Republicans are 'never' going to repeal Obamacare

Full text of John McCain's Senate floor speech: 'Let’s return to regular order'