Paid leave proposal will test Trump's populist commitment

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s proposed federal budget bears little resemblance to the economic populist vision he outlined as a candidate with a notable exception: a paid family leave proposal.

It’s one area where the president is showing a potential willingness to buck his party.

The United States is the only industrialized nation without a paid leave policy, and polls show the idea enjoys broad support among the public. Yet, even before the scheduled release Tuesday of Trump’s budget, opponents were lining up on all sides of the issue.

The proposal, championed by Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, would grant mothers and fathers six weeks of paid leave after the birth or adoption of a child.

How Trump navigates the issue could be an initial test of whether he’ll hold firm on any populist economic pledges that won him the hearts of so many working-class voters.

"The White House has proven to be pliant in its early legislative negotiations with Republican members, but it'll need to up its game in order to get this across the goal line," said Michael Golden, author of Unlock Congress and a senior fellow at the non-partisan Stevenson Center on Democracy. "How much the president truly prioritizes keeping his promise on paid leave is about to become very transparent," said Golden.

With the conservative House Freedom Caucus staunchly opposed to any new spending, House Republican leaders prefer a far less expansive proposal by Rep. Martha Roby, R-Ala., that would allow workers to apply earned overtime toward paid time off. In the Senate, a bill by Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., would create a tax incentive for companies to offer two weeks a year of paid family leave.

Democrats and progressive activists say none of the ideas goes far enough. “The inclusion of paid leave in the President’s budget is good news and a positive first step forward,” Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., said in a recent Medium post.

“But, as currently proposed, this plan falls far too many steps short of the realities working families face, and would leave far too many people behind, including seniors, parents with sick children, and even deployed members of the Armed Services,” said Gillibrand.

Trump the populist

Trump ran as a populist who would buck the “establishment” in both political parties to bring Congress to heel and advance issues that benefit working families. Since taking office, he’s championed a conservative budget while prioritizing a repeal of Obamacare over some of his most popular economic policy prescriptions, such as an infrastructure bill.

The paid leave proposal exemplifies how the promise of Trump’s populism is bumping up against a conservative Republican Congress that supports few new domestic expenditures of any kind. The White House is promising the plan won’t add to the deficit as Trump plans to fund it by weeding out waste and fraud in the current unemployment insurance system. It is expected to cost about $25 billion over 10 years, and will benefit about 1.3 million people, according to White House officials who briefed reporters last week.

It is more expansive than an initial one Trump floated last fall during the campaign that came under fire for restricting paid leave to biological mothers. According to the Institute for Women's Policy Research, about 40 percent of private sector workers — about 43 million people — in the United States don't get paid sick leave.

A March study by the Pew Research Center found that Americans largely support paid leave, while they are sharply divided over whether the government should require employers to fund it or let employers decide for themselves.

"With over 80% of Americans supporting paid family leave and a president, not to mention first daughter, who campaigned on the issue, you'd think this would be a no-brainer for Congress. But we're talking about Congress," said Golden. "The factions within the GOP complicate the effort, as with so many issues that have been driving internal divisions within the party," he said.

Still, it is a top priority for the president’s daughter, now an unpaid adviser with a West Wing office who had created an inter-agency working group to address the issue. Further, Ivanka Trump has been creating a brand, literally, around outreach to working women and is deeply invested in the issue. Earlier this month, she published a book titled: Women Who Work: Rewriting the Rules for Success. The outcome of the proposal will also test to what extent Ivanka and her husband, Jared Kushner, are succeeding in serving as a moderating influence in the White House.

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The proposal says states will be required to run their own programs and will be involved in designing it and able to determine eligibility and benefit amount, potentially leaving out and pricing out many Americans. Yet states could decide to exclude same-sex or unmarried couples.

Critics say the proposal also doesn’t go far enough because it doesn’t include paid leave for personal health problems and, in 22 states, unemployment insurance benefits are inadequate, accounting for less than one-third of the state’s average wage.

“This proposal will exclude too many people and won’t give people enough money or time. Even those who aren’t parents have parents or partners or loved ones who may need care, or may themselves experience an accident or cancer,” said Ellen Bravo, co-executive director of Family Values @ Work.

In the meantime as Congress shows little sign it's able to compromise on significant legislation, like on so many issues, individual states are already taking action . A number, including California, New Jersey and Rhode Island, have their own programs and several others are considering them.