POLITICS

Wisconsin Democrats see new energy, challenges

Jason Stein, and Patrick Marley

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

MADISON – In the first three months of this year, Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin got money from twice as many new donors as she did in all of 2016 — more even than she did in her first full quarter as a Senate candidate in late 2011.

She’s done it while decrying President Donald Trump and while meeting with new liberal groups that didn’t exist last fall when Democrats were dealt a bitter defeat by Trump and other Republicans.

There’s renewed energy on the left — both in Wisconsin and in national races like last Tuesday’s special congressional election in Georgia. Its impact is already being felt in policy fights in Congress over issues such as Obamacare.

But will it reach all the way to Baldwin’s re-election bid in 2018? How about GOP Gov. Scott Walker's own re-election race?

"The question is sustainability and organization: You ask the question of can you stay mad for two years? Some of the activists say, 'Hell yes!' " Marquette University Law School pollster Charles Franklin said.

The answer for everyone else is uncertain. Since 1936, the president's party has only gained U.S. House seats twice and has generally lost Senate seats and faced headwinds in races for governor as well — all good signs for Democrats.

But for now at least, Republicans in Wisconsin do have some positives heading into next year, including no declared Democratic candidate against Walker and an unemployment rate that has dropped to 3.4% — the lowest level in 17 years. GOP candidates like Walker and U.S. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan can also draw on the Republican infrastructure they've helped to build here, which typically turns out more voters than Democrats do in lower profile, non-presidential elections.

Democrats, on the other hand, have some newcomers like Adam Wood, a 34-year-old organizer with the Madison chapter of the liberal group Indivisible, which uses tea party-like tactics to oppose Republicans.

Wood was demoralized by the Republican victory last fall, but his optimism has been on the upswing since Trump’s inauguration.

“The silver lining of a Trump presidency is it’s really galvanized people who have been a little more on the sidelines. And I’ll admit that includes me,” Wood said. “There is more of a sense of urgency now.”

More than 500 people showed up when the Madison group held an “empty town hall” for Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and more than 100 people have come to some of the group’s organizing meetings, Wood said.

Gina Walkington, 31, formed Forward Kenosha with three others soon after the election because she said she needed “to channel all my despair into something productive.” About 100 to 125 now show up at the liberal group’s monthly meetings, she said.

“So many people in the group were not active or as active before this election,” she said. “I think we all feel like it’s time to step up the activity.”

From the Fox Valley to Rock County, local Democratic officials are seeing a bump in local meeting attendance and statewide membership. In Waukesha County — the GOP’s top Wisconsin stronghold — Democratic Party chairman Matt Lowe said he’s seeing at least triple the number of attendees at meetings.

"I'm seeing more energy and more enthusiasm to get involved than I've ever seen. This even trumps the (2012 governor's) recall," Lowe said.

In the first three months of 2017, the state Democratic Party raised more than $500,000 for federal races — about $75,000 more than the state Republican Party raised. That’s a change from four years ago, when Wisconsin Republicans outraised Wisconsin Democrats by almost $250,000 over three months.

Baldwin has also seen more interest from campaign contributors, drawing 21,100 new donors in the first quarter of this year, or roughly twice as many as she did in her first full quarter as a Senate candidate in late 2011.

For their part, Trump and Senate Republicans successfully installed Neil Gorsuch to the U.S. Supreme Court but so far other major legislative wins have eluded the GOP in Washington.

Franklin, the pollster, noted since Trump took office the president's approval rating has dropped somewhat while the rating of Obamacare has risen. In 1998 and 2002, the two elections since 1936 where the president's party actually gained seats in the U.S. House in a midterm election, the president's approval rating was well above where Trump's sits, he said.

That doesn't daunt Republicans like Walker campaign aide Joe Fadness. He points to the state's low unemployment rate and the governor's proposed budget, which includes increases in money for K-12 schools and cuts in income and property taxes.

“Governor Walker’s bold reforms are delivering results for hard-working families, with more Wisconsinites working than ever before, the lowest unemployment rate since 2000, and a bright economic outlook. Any campaign would be won on this record — not political noise from a party in disarray," Fadness said.

As Fadness notes, no legitimate Democratic candidate for governor has announced and several potential candidates have said they would not run after considering the idea.

Republicans haven't yet had a candidate announce a run against Baldwin either, but there two potential candidates, Kevin Nicholson and Nicole Schneider, have gotten serious enough that their respective camps have traded jabs.

Just this month, conservative state Supreme Court Justice Annette Ziegler was re-elected to a 10-year term without opposition from a liberal challenger.

State Republican Party spokesman Alec Zimmerman pointed out that his party has deep majorities in the Legislature and congressional seats.

"Wisconsin Democrats are in total disarray with a doomed agenda and no credible candidates for governor," Zimmerman said.

Patrick Guarasci, a Democratic strategist in Milwaukee, said that Republicans shouldn't get used to that, however.

“It was a mistake not to run someone against" Ziegler, he said. "That mistake will not be repeated.”